Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 1:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
UultraHDloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Linasignature
hAze · 35 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 25 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
Disruptor
Malady · 21 game
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 20 games
Marssignature
laise · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 17 games
ultraHD
Hoodwink
kickeed · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Egor · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Egor · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
kickeed · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
270 picks · 404 bans
Tidehunter
265 picks · 394 bans
Monkey King
261 picks · 639 bans
Bane
243 picks · 180 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 417 bans
Lina
221 picks · 476 bans
Lion
212 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
207 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:26
V-Gaming 68%ultraHD 32%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 1:07:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerhAze
TidehunterDkFogas
SpectreTA2000
Ember SpiritEgor
Marslaise
Snapfirekickeed
Undyingantoha
Dark WillowArrOw
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 78%
Series resultV-Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1