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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Valinorwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Valinor

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Jeezy · 1 game
100%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Wuiter · 1 game
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Coblackk · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Wuiter · 1 game
100%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
19%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 11 games
82%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 10 games
20%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Atoufix · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MaTson · 9 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
550 picks · 832 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 368 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
475 picks · 643 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 578 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 754 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 584 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 478 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 540 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 32%
Hero pool strength57% Valinor
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Valinor
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:13
Valinor 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Valinor — the game was taken by Valinor in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCoblackk
53% · 152 games52% · 292 games
GyrocopterFocus
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyG.T.I
51% · 262 games41% · 44 games
Spirit BreakerAtoufix
Spirit Breaker
Kunkka
KunkkaWuiter
53% · 94 games45% · 417 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterJeezy
55% · 223 games
Omniknight
OmniknightStoic
54% · 22 games
Game 2prediction correct52:48
Valinor 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Valinor — the game was taken by Valinor in 47:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezCoblackk
57% · 24 games50% · 314 games
TinyAtoufix
Tiny
Timbersaw
TimbersawG.T.I
53% · 149 games57% · 134 games
Shadow FiendFocus
Shadow Fiend
Axe
AxeWuiter
41% · 162 games47% · 331 game
WarlockSsaSpartan
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroStoic
49% · 383 games
Lion
LionJeezy
48% · 61 game
Model check result
Model favoriteValinor · 55%
Series resultValinor 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2