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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Valinorloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NoLogoJustMMRwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Valinor

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Stoic · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
20%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Coblackk · 4 games
50%

NoLogoJustMMR

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Flash · 4 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
G.T.I · 4 games
25%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
legacy · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Lurker · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Flash · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
legacy · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
544 picks · 882 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 390 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
480 picks · 642 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 596 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
399 picks · 840 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 588 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 573 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 489 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Valinor
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Valinor
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:6
Valinor 60%NoLogoJustMMR 40%
The model gave 60% on Valinor — the game was taken by Valinor in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCoblackk
59% · 273 games44% · 419 games
PuckNyx
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritG.T.I
50% · 336 games42% · 108 games
UnderlordLurker
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
54% · 371 game57% · 245 games
Bristlebacklegacy
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixStoic
52% · 228 games48% · 205 games
Shadow DemonAtoufix
Shadow Demon
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJeezy
47% · 88 games49% · 319 games
WarlockFlash
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed30:55
Valinor 58%NoLogoJustMMR 42%
The model gave 58% on Valinor — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR in 41:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWuiter
46% · 203 games49% · 304 games
Gyrocopterlegacy
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingCoblackk
58% · 253 games51% · 313 games
Ember SpiritNyx
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarG.T.I
43% · 253 games53% · 291 game
Centaur WarrunnerLurker
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJeezy
51% · 293 games50% · 292 games
RingmasterAtoufix
Ringmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanStoic
50% · 356 games48% · 158 games
UndyingFlash
Undying
Game 3prediction missed28:43
Valinor 59%NoLogoJustMMR 41%
The model gave 59% on Valinor — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCoblackk
45% · 57 games48% · 185 games
Windrangerlegacy
Windranger
Puck
PuckG.T.I
53% · 315 games45% · 376 games
TinyNyx
Tiny
Timbersaw
TimbersawWuiter
56% · 197 games52% · 107 games
BrewmasterLurker
Brewmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJeezy
57% · 146 games48% · 433 games
JakiroFlash
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskStoic
47% · 459 games48% · 73 games
Faceless VoidAtoufix
Faceless Void
Model check result
Model favoriteValinor · 65%
Series resultNoLogoJustMMR 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3