European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs predictionVValinorloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
strongboyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Valinor
Jakirooften banned
Stoic · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 8 games
Tusk
Stoic · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Wuiter · 7 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
G.T.I · 6 games
Kezoften banned
Coblackk · 6 games
Muerta
Coblackk · 6 games
strongboys
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 11 games
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 11 games
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 9 games
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 8 games
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 8 games
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
604 picks · 931 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 415 bans
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 618 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 573 bans
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 940 bans
Warlock
401 picks · 248 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 655 bans
Tiny
393 picks · 441 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:43
Valinor 37%strongboys 63%
The model gave 63% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 48:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerG.T.I
Queen of PainStojkov
AbaddonCoblackk
Shadow Fiendbashka
MarsWuiter
KunkkaChodΣX
Shadow ShamanStoic
Dark WillowPonlo
RingmasterJeezy
TuskUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct31:28
Valinor 32%strongboys 68%
The model gave 68% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendCoblackk
Svenbashka
Ember SpiritG.T.I
InvokerStojkov
MarsWuiter
BrewmasterChodΣX
Dark WillowJeezy
PugnaUndyne_
DisruptorStoic
BanePonlo
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 78%
Series resultstrongboys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2