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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Veritas Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Denloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Veritas Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Gardick · 3 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Costabile · 3 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
50%
Lina
Lina
Costabile · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Oscar · 1 game
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Oscar · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Oscar · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 1 game
100%

Team Den

Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 2 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Demon · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Frank · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Demon · 2 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
0%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Demon · 2 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Wits · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
539 picks · 614 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
474 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
463 picks · 431 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
384 picks · 797 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 530 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
353 picks · 800 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 303 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
334 picks · 378 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Veritas Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Veritas Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:20
Veritas Brothers 66%Team Den 34%
The model gave 66% on Veritas Brothers — the game was taken by Veritas Brothers in 50:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCostabile
51% · 139 games54% · 231 game
GyrocopterWits
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOscar
43% · 388 games53% · 115 games
Primal BeastFrank
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroGardick
48% · 313 games54% · 373 games
TinyDemon
Tiny
49% · 121 game
Ancient ApparitionMjz
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct27:4
Veritas Brothers 64%Team Den 36%
The model gave 64% on Veritas Brothers — the game was taken by Veritas Brothers in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyCostabile
48% · 355 games53% · 187 games
GyrocopterWits
Gyrocopter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOscar
52% · 34 games47% · 107 games
KunkkaFrank
Kunkka
Warlock
WarlockGardick
47% · 109 games57% · 82 games
Shadow DemonDemon
Shadow Demon
51% · 122 games
RingmasterMjz
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteVeritas Brothers · 77%
Series resultVeritas Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2