Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vice Esportsloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fnaticwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vice Esports
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Iooften banned
Palos · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
210 picks · 452 bans
Mars
185 picks · 341 bans
Void Spirit
182 picks · 252 bans
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
Phoenix
147 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
144 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
135 picks · 456 bans
Rubick
128 picks · 76 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Vice Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:46
Vice Esports 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 27:24.
Game 2prediction correct14:35
Vice Esports 45%Fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 30:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 55%
Series resultFnatic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2