Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Vice Esportsloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vice Esports
Arc Warden
Palos · 1 game
Dark Seer
Enryu · 1 game
Ember Spirit
Bob · 1 game
Magnus
Bob · 1 game
Morphling
Palos · 1 game
Slardar
Enryu · 1 game
Tidehunter
Enryu · 1 game
Void Spirit
Bob · 1 game
Neon Esports
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 2 games
Mirana
Skem · 2 games
Void Spirit
Yopaj · 2 games
Medusa
Natsumi · 1 game
Phantom Lancer
Natsumi · 1 game
Sand King
PlayHard · 1 game
Slardar
PlayHard · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mirana
3 picks · 2 bans
Tiny
3 picks · 0 bans
Void Spirit
3 picks · 3 bans
Weaver
3 picks · 0 bans
Anti-Mage
2 picks · 1 bans
Brewmaster
2 picks · 1 bans
Death Prophet
2 picks · 1 bans
Earth Spirit
2 picks · 1 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Vice Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:42
Vice Esports 49%Neon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomBob
Wraith KingNatsumi
Faceless VoidPalos
BatriderYopaj
Legion CommanderEnryu
PuckPlayHard
little data
MiranaJaunuel
little data
ClockwerkSkem
Game 2prediction missed12:44
Vice Esports 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Vice Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladePalos
UrsaNatsumi
KunkkaBob
PuckYopaj
TidehunterEnryu
Legion CommanderPlayHard
little data
Keeper of the LightSkem
little data
DisruptorJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteVice Esports · 50%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2