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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windranger
shiro · 29 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 23 games
48%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 16 games
44%
Largo
Largosignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 14 games
36%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
shiro · 14 games
71%

1w Team

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 28 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 23 games
35%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 19 games
58%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
517 picks · 364 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
369 picks · 657 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
365 picks · 206 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 351 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
328 picks · 362 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 445 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
313 picks · 233 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 420 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
Vici Gaming 50%1w Team 50%
The model gave 50% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezshiro
54% · 202 games43% · 116 games
MuertaPure~
Muerta
Necrophos
NecrophosXm
52% · 83 games42% · 65 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFaith_bian
59% · 177 games44% · 50 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXinQ
50% · 253 games48% · 156 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctory`
50% · 46 games54% · 374 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct4:32
Vici Gaming 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosFaith_bian
53% · 83 games59% · 116 games
Templar AssassinPure~
Templar Assassin
Tiny
Tinyshiro
44% · 461 game51% · 303 games
Centaur Warrunner33
Centaur Warrunner
Slardar
SlardarXm
52% · 380 games47% · 112 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Mirana
Miranay`
52% · 103 games49% · 554 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXinQ
45% · 292 games51% · 234 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 54%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2