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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
poyoyo · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 4 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 4 games
75%

Aster.Aries

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
29%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Fantasy · 6 games
17%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 868 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
364 picks · 523 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
318 picks · 568 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
283 picks · 502 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 239 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
237 picks · 384 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength61% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:42
Vici Gaming 57%Aster.Aries 43%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 51:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepoyoyo
54% · 9 games55% · 12 games
LifestealerUlu
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
51% · 49 games55% · 7 games
Templar Assassinphoenix
Templar Assassin
Batrider
BatriderELeVeN
48% · 24 games49% · 18 games
Legion Commander生死
Legion Commander
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
55% · 22 games48% · 73 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDy
40% · 6 games
Game 2prediction missed23:29
Vici Gaming 59%Aster.Aries 41%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautpoyoyo
36% · 37 games48% · 46 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Lina
LinaOri
49% · 10 games53% · 118 games
Void Spirit生死
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterELeVeN
59% · 31 game62% · 21 game
Dragon Knightphoenix
Dragon Knight
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
49% · 69 games55% · 21 game
AbaddonFantasy
Abaddon
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
43% · 59 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 65%
Series resultAster.Aries 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2