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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 15 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 10 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Victoria · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 9 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
38%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
poyoyo · 8 games
38%

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 8 games
88%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ulu · 6 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xwy · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
生死 · 5 games
40%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
RedPanda · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 454 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
459 picks · 683 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 543 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
400 picks · 284 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 593 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 790 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 552 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:21
Vici Gaming 52%Aster.Aries 48%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
51% · 177 games49% · 89 games
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Zeus
ZeusXm
51% · 34 games53% · 150 games
Death Prophet生死
Death Prophet
Razor
RazorYang
42% · 186 games46% · 59 games
BrewmasterXwy
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressVictoria
49% · 129 games52% · 237 games
TinyTK
Tiny
Marci
MarciYds
56% · 84 games52% · 75 games
Winter WyvernRedPanda
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed13:28
Vici Gaming 54%Aster.Aries 46%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaXm
51% · 214 games45% · 90 games
Doom生死
Doom
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYang
50% · 61 game56% · 45 games
SpectreUlu
Spectre
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
51% · 85 games51% · 172 games
Death ProphetXwy
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyYds
52% · 235 games48% · 195 games
Monkey KingTK
Monkey King
Warlock
WarlockVictoria
41% · 29 games51% · 122 games
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 57%
Series resultAster.Aries 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2