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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Victoria · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 6 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yang · 6 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Victoria · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Xm · 4 games
75%

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 11 games
82%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 10 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Xwy · 7 games
86%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
43%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ulu · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
731 picks · 571 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
506 picks · 1020 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
487 picks · 646 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
466 picks · 808 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 420 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 164 bans
48%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
303 picks · 586 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:35
Vici Gaming 51%Aster.Aries 49%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 1:03:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
51% · 142 games49% · 161 game
Phantom AssassinUlu
Phantom Assassin
Lina
LinaXm
52% · 168 games55% · 304 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernYang
45% · 118 games44% · 306 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Mars
Marsniu
48% · 421 game55% · 70 games
ChenPonlo
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFrisk
51% · 178 games51% · 186 games
ClockwerkRedPanda
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed17:20
Vici Gaming 52%Aster.Aries 48%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerpoyoyo
59% · 59 games55% · 101 game
Doom生死
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierXm
49% · 234 games52% · 91 game
MorphlingUlu
Morphling
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
53% · 102 games44% · 250 games
Ember SpiritXwy
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerYang
38% · 117 games57% · 83 games
ChenPonlo
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFrisk
46% · 116 games53% · 103 games
Ogre MagiRedPanda
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 58%
Series resultAster.Aries 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2