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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Rubick
Rubicksignature
fy · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 11 games
91%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yang · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Setsu · 8 games
88%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 8 games
75%

Aster.Aries

Phoenix
Phoenix
RedPanda · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
TK · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
White丶Album · 7 games
14%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
29%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
White丶Album · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
834 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
600 picks · 416 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
521 picks · 540 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 422 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
493 picks · 800 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
444 picks · 922 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
437 picks · 307 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 25%
Hero pool strength63% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
Vici Gaming 66%Aster.Aries 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSetsu
50% · 217 games51% · 139 games
Lycan生死
Lycan
Death Prophet
Death Prophetniu
48% · 363 games56% · 173 games
Monkey KingUlu
Monkey King
Tusk
Tuskfy
51% · 356 games55% · 173 games
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
Storm Spirit
Silencer
SilencerYang
44% · 172 games48% · 512 games
RubickRedPanda
Rubick
49% · 111 games
IoTK
Io
Game 2prediction missed26:32
Vici Gaming 65%Aster.Aries 35%
The model gave 65% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 53:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenflyfly
48% · 89 games55% · 94 games
Wraith KingUlu
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSetsu
45% · 189 games52% · 250 games
Dragon KnightWhite丶Album
Dragon Knight
Doom
Doomniu
53% · 121 game52% · 224 games
Broodmother生死
Broodmother
Tiny
Tinyfy
45% · 338 games48% · 96 games
BrewmasterTK
Brewmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorYang
48% · 108 games54% · 181 game
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 75%
Series resultAster.Aries 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2