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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Big Brainloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 10 games
90%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
fy · 9 games
89%
Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 8 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Yang · 8 games
88%

Big Brain

Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Molasses · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
marblue · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
blessing · 6 games
17%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Molasses · 4 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Manic · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Tz. · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
658 picks · 424 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
571 picks · 541 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 439 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
469 picks · 537 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 386 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
377 picks · 207 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
339 picks · 515 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
334 picks · 219 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 40%
Hero pool strength64% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:20
Vici Gaming 74%Big Brain 26%
The model gave 74% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
45% · 237 games54% · 173 games
Templar AssassinManic
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierSetsu
48% · 372 games52% · 142 games
Kunkkablessing
Kunkka
Primal Beast
Primal Beastniu
53% · 170 games42% · 379 games
Death ProphetMolasses
Death Prophet
Rubick
Rubickfy
48% · 431 game52% · 447 games
Tuskmarblue
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorYang
58% · 128 games48% · 197 games
SilencerTz.
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct48:30
Vici Gaming 73%Big Brain 27%
The model gave 73% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSetsu
40% · 109 games47% · 108 games
Shadow FiendManic
Shadow Fiend
Doom
Doomniu
46% · 222 games60% · 269 games
Pangolierblessing
Pangolier
Pudge
Pudgepoyoyo
49% · 122 games54% · 146 games
Broodmothermarblue
Broodmother
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
46% · 293 games52% · 275 games
SnapfireMolasses
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYang
51% · 263 games54% · 211 games
Treant ProtectorTz.
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 88%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2