FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CDEC Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 4 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Earthshaker
Pyw · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 3 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
345 picks · 716 bans
Void Spirit
326 picks · 417 bans
Mars
275 picks · 483 bans
Earth Spirit
254 picks · 216 bans
Death Prophet
234 picks · 347 bans
Rubick
229 picks · 128 bans
Keeper of the Light
218 picks · 448 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 656 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
Vici Gaming 60%CDEC Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:55.
Game 2prediction missed19:36
Vici Gaming 60%CDEC Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 51:21.
Game 3prediction missed13:30
Vici Gaming 60%CDEC Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by CDEC Gaming in 23:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 60%
Series resultCDEC Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3