Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 15 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 13 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 13 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 12 games
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 19 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 19 games
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
Grimstroke
Frisk · 12 games
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 9 games
Elder Titan
xNova · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
404 picks · 993 bans
Void Spirit
359 picks · 529 bans
Mars
350 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 335 bans
Death Prophet
338 picks · 702 bans
Lion
314 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 229 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
Vici Gaming 55%EHOME 45%
The model gave 55% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 45:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursapoyoyo
MedusaSylar
LeshracOri
ViperXm
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
Legion CommanderChalice
PhoenixPyw
Dark WillowFrisk
Treant ProtectorDy
ClockwerkxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 57%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1