Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Elephantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 11 games
Juggernautoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
405 picks · 963 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 709 bans
Mars
334 picks · 552 bans
Grimstroke
324 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 219 bans
Lion
294 picks · 162 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 278 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
Vici Gaming 56%Elephant 44%
The model gave 56% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:55.
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Vici Gaming 56%Elephant 44%
The model gave 56% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 56%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2