i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Elephantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 15 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 11 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 11 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 985 bans
Void Spirit
368 picks · 529 bans
Mars
351 picks · 569 bans
Death Prophet
339 picks · 706 bans
Grimstroke
334 picks · 333 bans
Lion
312 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total61% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:9
Vici Gaming 61%Elephant 39%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:58.
Game 2prediction correct36:37
Vici Gaming 61%Elephant 39%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 58:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 61%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2