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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 18 games
78%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 211 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
406 picks · 623 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 958 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
360 picks · 342 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 381 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
267 picks · 198 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:17
Vici Gaming 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 36:43.
Game 2prediction correct11:25
Vici Gaming 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 24:00.
Game 3prediction correct11:30
Vici Gaming 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 52:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 52%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3