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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ex-Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 20 games
45%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
Xm · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 14 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 12 games
67%

ex-Heroic

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuma · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Thiolicor · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaiLung · 3 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 3 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
KJ · 3 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Batyuk · 2 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 319 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 585 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 357 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 296 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
391 picks · 215 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
345 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 864 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 852 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:22
Vici Gaming 62%ex-Heroic 38%
The model gave 62% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 1:19:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierXm
45% · 315 games47% · 288 games
MuertaYuma
Muerta
Tiny
Tinyshiro
48% · 382 games55% · 302 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
43% · 308 games50% · 373 games
BristlebackTaiLung
Bristleback
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightXinQ
48% · 106 games54% · 298 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
48% · 325 games62% · 175 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct34:4
Vici Gaming 65%ex-Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 22:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangershiro
49% · 22 games50% · 153 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
53% · 136 games49% · 93 games
LifestealerYuma
Lifestealer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
49% · 205 games49% · 260 games
SlardarTaiLung
Slardar
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
47% · 150 games44% · 59 games
TechiesThiolicor
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
57% · 71 game58% · 19 games
LichKJ
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 75%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2