The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Fnaticloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 20 games
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 17 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dy · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 16 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
310 picks · 173 bans
Lina
282 picks · 536 bans
Mars
278 picks · 405 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 97 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 256 bans
Luna
230 picks · 326 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Vici Gaming 52%Fnatic 48%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:15.
Game 2prediction missed23:38
Vici Gaming 52%Fnatic 48%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Fnatic in 54:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2