The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FEFuture Esportloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 3 games
Phoenix
Dy · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Yang · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Kaka · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Ori · 2 games
Disruptor
Dy · 2 games
Lion
Kaka · 2 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Kaka · 2 games
Future Esport
Oracleoften banned
LOyd · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 3 games
Axe
Irving · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Night · 2 games
Jakiro
LOyd · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Night · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
519 picks · 592 bans
Jakiro
475 picks · 436 bans
Ringmaster
469 picks · 236 bans
Terrorblade
370 picks · 760 bans
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 507 bans
Ancient Apparition
337 picks · 780 bans
Tusk
322 picks · 291 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 94 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Future Esport
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:18
Vici Gaming 72%Future Esport 28%
The model gave 72% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaPaparazi
PangolierNight
Storm SpiritOri
UnderlordIrving
AxeYang
DisruptorLOyd
PhoenixKaka
SilencerDy
Game 2prediction correct33:11
Vici Gaming 68%Future Esport 32%
The model gave 68% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 26:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendPaparazi
Dark SeerIrving
TimbersawYang
EarthshakerNight
Ember SpiritOri
Shadow ShamanLOyd
Nature's ProphetKaka
Vengeful SpiritDy
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 84%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2