Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Tidehunteroften banned
ELeVeN · 18 games
Weaversignature
Pyw · 18 games
Disruptorsignature
Victoria · 13 games
Snapfire
Pyw · 13 games
Grimstroke
Victoria · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 11 games
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Tusk
CatYou · 5 games
Iooften banned
CatYou · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
448 picks · 292 bans
Queen of Pain
406 picks · 515 bans
Weaver
362 picks · 533 bans
Mars
353 picks · 500 bans
Kunkka
289 picks · 483 bans
Spirit Breaker
262 picks · 488 bans
Wraith King
252 picks · 341 bans
Snapfire
248 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Vici Gaming 53%LBZS 47%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinXm
Ember SpiritShanks
Lifestealerpoyoyo
MarsMolasses
Dragon KnightYang
MiranaCatYou
HoodwinkYds
Ogre MagiVictoria
Game 2prediction correct27:19
Vici Gaming 58%LBZS 42%
The model gave 58% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritXm
Dragon KnightShanks
Huskarpoyoyo
UnderlordMolasses
Chaos KnightYang
Skywrath MageCatYou
GrimstrokeYds
SnapfireVictoria
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 60%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2