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OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 26 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 24 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 22 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 21 game
76%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 19 games
58%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 19 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
84%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
74%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 18 games
78%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 186 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
336 picks · 129 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
314 picks · 628 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
306 picks · 682 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
302 picks · 468 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 520 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
274 picks · 347 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
263 picks · 357 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 66%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total64% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:26
Vici Gaming 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 55:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerpoyoyo
41% · 52 games52% · 86 games
Templar AssassinNothingToSay
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOri
49% · 118 games41% · 73 games
AxeFaith_bian
Axe
Broodmother
BroodmotherELeVeN
45% · 48 games43% · 3 games
PudgeXinQ
Pudge
Mirana
MiranaPyw
55% · 116 games59% · 94 games
Ancient Apparitiony`
Ancient Apparition
Jakiro
JakiroDy
little data53% · 78 games
ClockwerkAme
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct11:23
Vici Gaming 41%LGD Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 17:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeELeVeN
43% · 3 games60% · 59 games
Templar AssassinAme
Templar Assassin
Lina
LinaOri
39% · 115 games56% · 25 games
BroodmotherFaith_bian
Broodmother
Medusa
Medusapoyoyo
48% · 75 games52% · 98 games
InvokerNothingToSay
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
49% · 111 games53% · 59 games
Keeper of the LightXinQ
Keeper of the Light
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterDy
31% · 13 games57% · 76 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct14:27
Vici Gaming 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinpoyoyo
38% · 45 games54% · 31 game
Drow RangerAme
Drow Ranger
Puck
PuckOri
42% · 117 games57% · 82 games
BristlebackNothingToSay
Bristleback
Mars
MarsELeVeN
54% · 129 games54% · 68 games
SlardarFaith_bian
Slardar
Viper
ViperDy
44% · 38 games53% · 143 games
Keeper of the LightXinQ
Keeper of the Light
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
46% · 85 games54% · 90 games
Undyingy`
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 64%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3