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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 15 games
93%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
poyoyo · 8 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 8 games
38%

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 12 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 9 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
451 picks · 1009 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
423 picks · 612 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 655 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
341 picks · 646 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
333 picks · 285 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 382 bans
60%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
263 picks · 838 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:16
Vici Gaming 49%Neon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautpoyoyo
52% · 65 games48% · 45 games
MedusaSkem
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackELeVeN
61% · 16 games51% · 205 games
Void SpiritYopaj
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckOri
52% · 180 games41% · 54 games
LeshracDeth
Leshrac
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
57% · 64 games52% · 95 games
PangolierPlayHard
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
43% · 88 games47% · 14 games
Ogre MagiJaunuel
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed13:39
Vici Gaming 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpoyoyo
56% · 22 games55% · 41 game
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
55% · 189 games48% · 59 games
TimbersawDeth
Timbersaw
Alchemist
AlchemistELeVeN
47% · 59 games41% · 196 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPyw
58% · 42 games32% · 10 games
Spirit BreakerJaunuel
Spirit Breaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinDy
55% · 76 games47% · 82 games
PangolierPlayHard
Pangolier
Game 3prediction correct6:25
Vici Gaming 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingpoyoyo
53% · 104 games44% · 30 games
LeshracSkem
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritOri
52% · 73 games53% · 64 games
Nature's ProphetDeth
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierELeVeN
51% · 100 games50% · 129 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerPyw
47% · 18 games46% · 40 games
Elder TitanJaunuel
Elder Titan
Abaddon
AbaddonDy
55% · 54 games44% · 86 games
TuskPlayHard
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 52%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3