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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 17 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Dy · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
60%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 9 games
89%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 636 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 991 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 221 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
373 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 193 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
308 picks · 219 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 377 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:21
Vici Gaming 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 16:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautpoyoyo
58% · 65 games51% · 47 games
RazorMiracle-
Razor
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
44% · 129 games48% · 76 games
TerrorbladeiLTW
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomELeVeN
48% · 32 games52% · 65 games
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Dragon Knight
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
58% · 129 games53% · 116 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
44% · 123 games44% · 174 games
RubickGH
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed8:23
Vici Gaming 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 23:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerpoyoyo
52% · 42 games41% · 57 games
Dragon KnightMiracle-
Dragon Knight
Lina
LinaOri
50% · 72 games52% · 104 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsELeVeN
52% · 200 games49% · 37 games
SpectreiLTW
Spectre
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
50% · 73 games48% · 130 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
59% · 92 games44% · 151 game
LionKuroKy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 71%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2