?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 3:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 18 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 12 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ws · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 10 games
40%

Roar Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 14 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 13 games
31%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 13 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
648 picks · 690 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 453 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 421 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 289 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
433 picks · 431 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1113 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 865 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
393 picks · 178 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total94% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:3
Vici Gaming 82%Roar Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 19:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingshiro
50% · 266 games50% · 126 games
Morphlingukiyo
Morphling
Sand King
Sand KingFaith_bian
55% · 306 games50% · 339 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXm
54% · 556 games43% · 262 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesXinQ
48% · 49 games50% · 246 games
HoodwinkCatYou
Hoodwink
Dazzle
Dazzley`
53% · 201 game46% · 405 games
JakiroLOyd
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct36:11
Vici Gaming 81%Roar Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperXm
51% · 89 games53% · 93 games
Lunaukiyo
Luna
Muerta
Muertashiro
49% · 186 games44% · 204 games
Tidehunter生死
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderFaith_bian
45% · 204 games53% · 165 games
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickXinQ
50% · 102 games31% · 9 games
TechiesCatYou
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
60% · 92 games48% · 202 games
PhoenixLOyd
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct23:14
Vici Gaming 81%Roar Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezshiro
49% · 113 games49% · 425 games
Beastmasterukiyo
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckXm
50% · 325 games50% · 159 games
ViperButterflyEffect
Viper
Muerta
MuertaXinQ
54% · 139 games56% · 292 games
Tidehunter生死
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarFaith_bian
49% · 229 games48% · 85 games
Spirit BreakerCatYou
Spirit Breaker
Warlock
Warlocky`
48% · 333 games48% · 178 games
DazzleLOyd
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 94%
Series resultVici Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3