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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 17 games
41%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Victoria · 12 games
42%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 11 games
45%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 11 games
9%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Yds · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Victoria · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 9 games
44%

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 21 game
76%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fantasy · 20 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
444 picks · 267 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 541 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
329 picks · 420 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 556 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
302 picks · 464 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
294 picks · 319 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 370 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
267 picks · 496 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 65%
Hero pool strength60% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 7
Model total74% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:9
Vici Gaming 36%Team Aster 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerpoyoyo
55% · 92 games38% · 4 games
AlchemistMonet
Alchemist
Invoker
InvokerXm
48% · 214 games47% · 187 games
KunkkaOri
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingYang
51% · 161 game51% · 196 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkYds
53% · 182 games49% · 175 games
EnchantressBoBoKa
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkVictoria
51% · 122 games48% · 209 games
Death ProphetFantasy
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction correct20:26
Vici Gaming 34%Team Aster 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzpoyoyo
47% · 31 game52% · 183 games
Templar AssassinMonet
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYang
48% · 161 game49% · 187 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXm
51% · 253 games50% · 220 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkYds
51% · 194 games55% · 93 games
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
Keeper of the Light
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiVictoria
45% · 87 games51% · 43 games
Shadow ShamanFantasy
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed27:20
Vici Gaming 34%Team Aster 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerpoyoyo
54% · 161 game42% · 142 games
Phantom AssassinMonet
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckXm
53% · 309 games48% · 233 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierYds
51% · 321 game52% · 581 game
MarsXxs
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterYang
49% · 302 games48% · 139 games
PhoenixBoBoKa
Phoenix
Bane
BaneVictoria
54% · 374 games49% · 372 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 74%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3