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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 19 games
42%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 11 games
18%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 10 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 10 games
80%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Yds · 10 games
40%

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 28 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 24 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 23 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
486 picks · 452 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
484 picks · 676 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 281 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 505 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 652 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 596 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 307 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total53% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
Vici Gaming 47%Team Aster 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 44:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXm
59% · 196 games42% · 22 games
SlarkMonet
Slark
Pudge
Pudgepoyoyo
45% · 16 games54% · 263 games
PuckOri
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYang
46% · 192 games50% · 181 game
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingYds
55% · 160 games51% · 295 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkVictoria
39% · 201 game38% · 4 games
WarlockFantasy
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed29:19
Vici Gaming 45%Team Aster 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
55% · 83 games46% · 51 game
JuggernautMonet
Juggernaut
Viper
ViperXm
45% · 85 games51% · 49 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Razor
RazorYang
48% · 126 games52% · 178 games
PangolierOri
Pangolier
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVictoria
57% · 104 games50% · 112 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Marci
MarciYds
38% · 4 games46% · 12 games
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed16:4
Vici Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 21:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinypoyoyo
50% · 188 games48% · 194 games
LinaOri
Lina
Razor
RazorXm
51% · 152 games47% · 108 games
Wraith KingMonet
Wraith King
Lycan
LycanYang
55% · 49 games49% · 179 games
Death ProphetXxs
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickYds
53% · 124 games47% · 87 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Windranger
WindrangerVictoria
54% · 59 games38% · 4 games
MarciBoBoKa
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 53%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3