The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Fusionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Victoria · 8 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 6 games
Razorsignature
Yang · 6 games
Lifestealeroften banned
poyoyo · 5 games
Clockwerk
Victoria · 4 games
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
725 picks · 572 bans
Puck
504 picks · 1020 bans
Dawnbreaker
491 picks · 652 bans
Marci
474 picks · 816 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 420 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 392 bans
Razor
304 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
Vici Gaming 54%Team Fusion 46%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 28:14.
Game 2prediction correct33:17
Vici Gaming 54%Team Fusion 46%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 54%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2