Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Victoria · 17 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 11 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Yds · 10 games
Disruptor
Victoria · 9 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 9 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
448 picks · 265 bans
Mars
405 picks · 552 bans
Tiny
329 picks · 379 bans
Death Prophet
326 picks · 644 bans
Weaver
296 picks · 365 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 417 bans
Sand King
273 picks · 343 bans
Queen of Pain
262 picks · 435 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Team MagMa
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total63% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
Vici Gaming 63%Team MagMa 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:37.
Game 2prediction correct38:17
Vici Gaming 63%Team MagMa 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 63%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2