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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Nemesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Dy · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 4 games
25%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Xm · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ori · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ws · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 3 games
67%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 10 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mac · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jing · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Akashi · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
504 picks · 264 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
474 picks · 476 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 980 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 374 bans
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
299 picks · 493 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
299 picks · 146 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 508 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 616 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength51% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Vici Gaming 65%Team Nemesis 35%
The model gave 65% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursalou
47% · 101 game50% · 314 games
BeastmasterRaven
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckXm
49% · 282 games47% · 81 game
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Axe
AxeWs
44% · 79 games55% · 213 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
52% · 181 game51% · 197 games
Centaur WarrunnerJing
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroDy
50% · 162 games
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Vici Gaming 66%Team Nemesis 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursalou
51% · 99 games41% · 227 games
Queen of PainMac
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXm
50% · 154 games54% · 154 games
SvenAkashi
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierWs
53% · 199 games50% · 22 games
VenomancerRaven
Venomancer
Snapfire
SnapfirePyw
56% · 123 games49% · 223 games
Centaur WarrunnerJing
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
DazzleDy
52% · 51 game
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 76%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2