PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 2:3series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Team Nemesiswin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
Marssignature
Ws · 8 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 7 games
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 7 games
Disruptor
Dy · 6 games
Warlocksignature
y` · 6 games
Team Nemesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 18 games
Tinysignature
Mac · 15 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
Leshrac
Mac · 12 games
Muerta
Jhocam · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 915 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 404 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 654 bans
Centaur Warrunner
483 picks · 615 bans
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 880 bans
Ember Spirit
379 picks · 614 bans
Mars
362 picks · 508 bans
Warlock
359 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total83% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:26
Vici Gaming 69%Team Nemesis 31%
The model gave 69% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 49:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusashiro
PuckMac
Shadow FiendXm
Drow Ranger23savage
UnderlordFaith_bian
BrewmasterJabz
LionpLAnet
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
Disruptory`
TuskQ
Game 2prediction missed13:24
Vici Gaming 68%Team Nemesis 32%
The model gave 68% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 50:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritXm
HuskarMac
Gyrocoptershiro
Alchemist23savage
BeastmasterFaith_bian
TimbersawJabz
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Spirit BreakerQ
Jakiroy`
DisruptorJaunuel
Game 3prediction correct28:16
Vici Gaming 68%Team Nemesis 32%
The model gave 68% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 50:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawFaith_bian
Clinkz23savage
LeshracXm
Storm SpiritMac
Huskarshiro
TinkerJaunuel
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
MarsJabz
Treant Protectory`
MuertaQ
Game 4prediction missed11:23
Vici Gaming 69%Team Nemesis 31%
The model gave 69% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 45:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razorshiro
Morphling23savage
Ember SpiritXm
Storm SpiritMac
TidehunterFaith_bian
BeastmasterJabz
GrimstrokepLAnet
WindrangerQ
Largoy`
Treant ProtectorJaunuel
Game 5prediction missed9:25
Vici Gaming 70%Team Nemesis 30%
The model gave 70% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidshiro
Morphling23savage
Storm SpiritXm
TinyMac
MarsFaith_bian
RazorJabz
Skywrath MagepLAnet
WindrangerQ
Phoenixy`
RingmasterJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 83%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5