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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 22 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 15 games
53%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
57%

Team Secret

Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 996 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 212 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 620 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
358 picks · 362 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
321 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
290 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
288 picks · 198 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
279 picks · 614 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:46
Vici Gaming 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:02:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
46% · 44 games45% · 153 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackOri
53% · 43 games55% · 117 games
Wraith KingMATUMBAMAN
Wraith King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
56% · 100 games39% · 19 games
HoodwinkPuppey
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPyw
55% · 32 games52% · 47 games
Slardarzai
Slardar
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
42% · 143 games53% · 26 games
Winter WyvernYapzOr
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct24:7
Vici Gaming 51%Team Secret 49%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
47% · 36 games44% · 43 games
Troll WarlordNisha
Troll Warlord
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
55% · 39 games51% · 63 games
MorphlingMATUMBAMAN
Morphling
Slardar
SlardarELeVeN
60% · 21 game49% · 48 games
RubickYapzOr
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
50% · 54 games52% · 31 game
Magnuszai
Magnus
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
50% · 71 game48% · 36 games
Treant ProtectorPuppey
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2