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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TNC Predatorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 15 games
73%

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lionsignature
Boomy · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Gabbi · 9 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 8 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 998 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 214 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 636 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
370 picks · 358 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 209 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 371 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:25
Vici Gaming 52%TNC Predator 48%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 45:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusapoyoyo
44% · 86 games47% · 25 games
Drow RangerGabbi
Drow Ranger
Puck
PuckOri
44% · 295 games54% · 158 games
TinyArmel
Tiny
Timbersaw
TimbersawELeVeN
64% · 108 games48% · 251 game
MarsBok
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDy
61% · 121 game47% · 111 games
EnchantressBoomy
Enchantress
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
45% · 152 games46% · 217 games
LionTims
Lion
Game 2prediction missed6:35
Vici Gaming 54%TNC Predator 46%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
52% · 60 games49% · 58 games
Monkey KingGabbi
Monkey King
Morphling
Morphlingpoyoyo
57% · 77 games48% · 32 games
RazorArmel
Razor
Slardar
SlardarELeVeN
51% · 30 games57% · 28 games
MagnusBok
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
46% · 60 games50% · 101 game
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
Oracle
OracleDy
46% · 77 games48% · 85 games
Nyx AssassinTims
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2