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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xm · 16 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 13 games
38%
Muerta
Muertasignature
shiro · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 12 games
58%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 21 game
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
515 picks · 310 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 577 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 355 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
403 picks · 302 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 205 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 308 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 854 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 848 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:35
Vici Gaming 64%Virtus.pro 36%
The model gave 64% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautshiro
49% · 111 games50% · 136 games
LifestealerTimado
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierFaith_bian
46% · 381 game50% · 351 game
PuckAbed
Puck
Tiny
TinyXm
48% · 531 game48% · 234 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickXinQ
53% · 356 games46% · 263 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
56% · 52 games55% · 447 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed13:27
Vici Gaming 65%Virtus.pro 35%
The model gave 65% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
45% · 208 games48% · 349 games
TinyTimado
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
45% · 497 games57% · 80 games
MagnusSabeRLight-
Magnus
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
54% · 119 games50% · 365 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXinQ
41% · 232 games54% · 117 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
58% · 132 games53% · 277 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 75%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2