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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Rubick
Rubicksignature
fy · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 12 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yang · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Setsu · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 8 games
75%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Kaka · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lionsignature
Pyw · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pyw · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JT- · 7 games
57%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
Ghost · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
867 picks · 606 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
621 picks · 430 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 432 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
519 picks · 835 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
465 picks · 324 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
460 picks · 965 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 303 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:22
Vici Gaming 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 53:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingflyfly
50% · 163 games53% · 152 games
Shadow FiendPaparazi
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSetsu
43% · 259 games48% · 138 games
UrsaGhost
Ursa
Doom
Doomniu
49% · 139 games55% · 136 games
BroodmotherJT-
Broodmother
Enchantress
Enchantressfy
51% · 164 games48% · 100 games
Shadow ShamanKaka
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptorYang
48% · 186 games55% · 385 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct8:32
Vici Gaming 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSetsu
49% · 165 games51% · 182 games
Chaos KnightGhost
Chaos Knight
Doom
Doomflyfly
44% · 190 games53% · 94 games
LycanJT-
Lycan
Underlord
Underlordniu
46% · 86 games54% · 323 games
PangolierPaparazi
Pangolier
Snapfire
Snapfirefy
45% · 285 games54% · 275 games
MiranaDy
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYang
48% · 173 games60% · 25 games
LionKaka
Lion
Game 3prediction correct20:38
Vici Gaming 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetflyfly
56% · 234 games44% · 169 games
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSetsu
43% · 32 games42% · 238 games
DoomJT-
Doom
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
53% · 253 games49% · 424 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Rubick
Rubickfy
54% · 428 games47% · 42 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Tusk
TuskYang
50% · 333 games55% · 407 games
MiranaKaka
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 63%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3