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BLAST Slam VII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 19 games
37%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
68%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 11 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 10 games
50%

Yakult Brothers

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 27 games
37%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
24%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 19 games
32%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 19 games
26%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 15 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Yang · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 839 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
572 picks · 567 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 423 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
472 picks · 333 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1144 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
407 picks · 686 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 616 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
393 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 34%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total89% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:7
Vici Gaming 76%Yakult Brothers 24%
The model gave 76% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
50% · 296 games53% · 183 games
TimbersawJT-
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarXm
47% · 299 games49% · 181 game
Muertaflyfly
Muerta
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFaith_bian
54% · 198 games46% · 317 games
PangolierMoon
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesXinQ
47% · 28 games50% · 498 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
55% · 382 games41% · 24 games
Earth SpiritBoBoKa
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction missed24:38
Vici Gaming 75%Yakult Brothers 25%
The model gave 75% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 52:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
51% · 222 games50% · 76 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXm
46% · 384 games53% · 226 games
BristlebackMoon
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterFaith_bian
53% · 225 games51% · 199 games
SlardarJT-
Slardar
Venomancer
Venomancery`
50% · 50 games54% · 115 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXinQ
45% · 140 games48% · 405 games
TuskBoBoKa
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed12:32
Vici Gaming 72%Yakult Brothers 28%
The model gave 72% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 46:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangershiro
46% · 217 games46% · 174 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
45% · 254 games55% · 611 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
47% · 299 games52% · 453 games
SlardarJT-
Slardar
Tusk
TuskXinQ
44% · 461 game50% · 325 games
MuertaBoBoKa
Muerta
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
49% · 456 games66% · 124 games
Treant Protector天命
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 89%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3