Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Batrideroften banned
Tobi · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Aramis · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Aramis · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 1 game
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
43 picks · 80 bans
Puck
36 picks · 89 bans
Earth Spirit
33 picks · 26 bans
Void Spirit
31 picks · 49 bans
Monkey King
27 picks · 48 bans
Phoenix
25 picks · 37 bans
Undying
25 picks · 49 bans
Mirana
24 picks · 30 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:54
ViKin.gg 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 39:47.
Game 2prediction correct36:13
ViKin.gg 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 26:48.
Game 3prediction correct36:6
ViKin.gg 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 25:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 50%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3