The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 29 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
Tinysignature
Aramis · 21 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 19 games
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 18 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 18 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 18 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
473 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Puck
358 picks · 871 bans
Grimstroke
331 picks · 308 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 446 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total70% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:20
ViKin.gg 70%Chicken Fighters 30%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 35:46.
Game 2prediction missed12:21
ViKin.gg 70%Chicken Fighters 30%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 45:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 70%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2