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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ghost frogsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 18 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 17 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 13 games
77%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 11 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 11 games
91%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Aramis · 11 games
64%

Ghost frogs

Mirana
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
j4 · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
80%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
j4 · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
MiLAN · 4 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tobi · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 991 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 572 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
343 picks · 523 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 347 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
325 picks · 699 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
322 picks · 176 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 279 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:25
ViKin.gg 66%Ghost frogs 34%
The model gave 66% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBOOM
39% · 18 games63% · 21 game
Templar AssassinMTD
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorShad
59% · 26 games43% · 35 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Omniknight
OmniknightKheZu
43% · 3 games46% · 22 games
SlardarTobi
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
44% · 32 games53% · 27 games
MiranaMiLAN
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAramis
49% · 45 games58% · 19 games
Ancient Apparitionj4
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct28:27
ViKin.gg 66%Ghost frogs 34%
The model gave 66% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 47:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingShad
49% · 86 games51% · 18 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracBOOM
58% · 46 games61% · 38 games
AxeTobi
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAramis
47% · 16 games47% · 165 games
PuckMTD
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKheZu
52% · 65 games48% · 79 games
TinyMiLAN
Tiny
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSeleri
43% · 119 games52% · 32 games
Ancient Apparitionj4
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction correct27:35
ViKin.gg 63%Ghost frogs 37%
The model gave 63% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
56% · 45 games42% · 52 games
Dark SeerTobi
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyBOOM
33% · 53 games57% · 42 games
SlardarCrystallis
Slardar
Puck
PuckKheZu
49% · 211 games48% · 229 games
Void SpiritMTD
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressAramis
53% · 80 games52% · 135 games
MiranaMiLAN
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixSeleri
53% · 113 games61% · 44 games
Disruptorj4
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 78%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3