Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 11 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 11 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 10 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
HF
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
448 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
428 picks · 589 bans
Death Prophet
370 picks · 696 bans
Mars
351 picks · 607 bans
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 183 bans
Grimstroke
287 picks · 257 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 395 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 81%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect