Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 5 games
Earthshaker
Aramis · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 3 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Aramis · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
BOOM · 2 games
High Coast Esports
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Era · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
215 picks · 457 bans
Mars
188 picks · 344 bans
Void Spirit
187 picks · 252 bans
Earth Spirit
174 picks · 141 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 171 bans
Keeper of the Light
146 picks · 242 bans
Nyx Assassin
139 picks · 462 bans
Rubick
130 picks · 77 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 25%
Hero pool strength50% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:30
ViKin.gg 61%High Coast Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenShad
JuggernautCharlie
PuckBOOM
Storm SpiritSupream^
TimbersawTobi
BeastmasterChessie
Nyx AssassinAramis
Shadow ShamanEra
GrimstrokeSeleri
ChenXibbe
Game 2prediction missed14:33
ViKin.gg 63%High Coast Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by High Coast Esports in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaShad
JuggernautCharlie
PuckBOOM
BeastmasterChessie
PangolierTobi
Void SpiritSupream^
Keeper of the LightAramis
EnchantressXibbe
BrewmasterSeleri
Earth SpiritEra
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 74%
Series resultHigh Coast Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2