Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 10 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 9 games
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 9 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 9 games
Void Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
431 picks · 941 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 580 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 665 bans
Mars
333 picks · 584 bans
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 272 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 177 bans
Phoenix
258 picks · 375 bans
Grimstroke
250 picks · 213 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 27%
Hero pool strength64% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:40
ViKin.gg 87%Level UP 13%
The model gave 87% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:27.
Game 2prediction correct29:17
ViKin.gg 87%Level UP 13%
The model gave 87% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 32:47.
Game 3prediction correct45:17
ViKin.gg 87%Level UP 13%
The model gave 87% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 34:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 87%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3