?
arrow_backBack to match
Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 11 games
82%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 11 games
73%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 10 games
30%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 10 games
70%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
78%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 7 games
43%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Lodine · 5 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 981 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
416 picks · 577 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 706 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 596 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 302 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 190 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
300 picks · 272 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
264 picks · 406 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
ViKin.gg 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 28:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerBOOM
little data42% · 36 games
MorphlingKiritych
Morphling
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
51% · 48 games54% · 89 games
MarsAinkrad
Mars
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKheZu
48% · 32 games51% · 19 games
KunkkaTheChosenOne
Kunkka
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
49% · 31 game57% · 45 games
Elder TitanHellscream
Elder Titan
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAramis
53% · 149 games42% · 71 game
GrimstrokeLodine
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct39:14
ViKin.gg 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 25:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingShad
50% · 91 game46% · 106 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Axe
AxeKheZu
42% · 12 games49% · 61 game
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Puck
PuckBOOM
52% · 157 games57% · 36 games
SlardarTheChosenOne
Slardar
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAramis
56% · 76 games49% · 172 games
Earth SpiritHellscream
Earth Spirit
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSeleri
46% · 110 games50% · 71 game
AbaddonLodine
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 70%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2