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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 26 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Aramis · 21 game
71%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 16 games
81%

Nigma Galaxy

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 17 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 15 games
47%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 13 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
405 picks · 200 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 590 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 900 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 336 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 226 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 382 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
256 picks · 343 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:9
ViKin.gg 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShad
44% · 44 games38% · 105 games
MorphlingiLTW
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawKheZu
44% · 94 games52% · 222 games
PuckMiracle-
Puck
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
55% · 30 games60% · 54 games
AxeMinD_ContRoL
Axe
Lion
LionAramis
53% · 212 games60% · 63 games
IoGH
Io
Abaddon
AbaddonSeleri
50% · 78 games48% · 14 games
BrewmasterKuroKy
Brewmaster
Game 2prediction correct38:14
ViKin.gg 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 37:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShad
44% · 77 games43% · 88 games
GyrocopteriLTW
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBOOM
45% · 94 games52% · 55 games
LinaMiracle-
Lina
Razor
RazorKheZu
68% · 54 games42% · 103 games
LeshracMinD_ContRoL
Leshrac
Snapfire
SnapfireAramis
54% · 147 games54% · 144 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Abaddon
AbaddonSeleri
44% · 70 games58% · 52 games
IoGH
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 67%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2