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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 17 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 16 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Aramis · 11 games
64%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 10 games
70%

Team Bald Reborn

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Pablo · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 4 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
5up · 3 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
5up · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pablo · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Rajjix · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 993 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
364 picks · 532 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 572 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
341 picks · 333 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
339 picks · 705 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
314 picks · 172 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 228 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 282 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:12
ViKin.gg 69%Team Bald Reborn 31%
The model gave 69% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 27:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageShad
52% · 18 games64% · 21 game
BristlebackGorgc
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyBOOM
42% · 44 games55% · 47 games
LeshracExcalibur
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKheZu
52% · 44 gameslittle data
HoodwinkRajjix
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAramis
42% · 21 game48% · 33 games
Dark WillowPablo
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSeleri
49% · 61 game48% · 87 games
Earth Spirit5up
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct44:25
ViKin.gg 68%Team Bald Reborn 32%
The model gave 68% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinShad
38% · 64 games57% · 116 games
JuggernautGorgc
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBOOM
46% · 69 games47% · 169 games
MarsRajjix
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterKheZu
48% · 87 games48% · 43 games
AxeExcalibur
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
47% · 76 gameslittle data
Hoodwink5up
Hoodwink
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAramis
48% · 141 game64% · 109 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 80%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2