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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 10 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 9 games
22%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
56%

Team Spirit

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 935 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
404 picks · 579 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 660 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 580 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 270 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
263 picks · 176 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
253 picks · 373 bans
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
249 picks · 208 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:32
ViKin.gg 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerShad
46% · 31 game49% · 62 games
Wraith KingYatoro
Wraith King
Leshrac
LeshracBOOM
54% · 37 games51% · 45 games
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomKheZu
44% · 5 games57% · 3 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAramis
50% · 65 games51% · 16 games
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
Ancient Apparition
Oracle
OracleSeleri
54% · 72 games47% · 84 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed7:26
ViKin.gg 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordShad
48% · 69 games44% · 27 games
Phantom LancerYatoro
Phantom Lancer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBOOM
54% · 26 games37% · 46 games
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerKheZu
59% · 24 games50% · 62 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Tusk
TuskAramis
55% · 97 games57% · 52 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
56% · 43 games43% · 72 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2