ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 28 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
Tinysignature
Aramis · 21 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 19 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 16 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
410 picks · 200 bans
Mars
391 picks · 586 bans
Puck
383 picks · 892 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 204 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 336 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
Centaur Warrunner
281 picks · 384 bans
Ancient Apparition
262 picks · 349 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total82% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:8
ViKin.gg 82%Team Unique 18%
The model gave 82% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 32:25.
Game 2prediction correct17:16
ViKin.gg 82%Team Unique 18%
The model gave 82% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 33:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 82%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2