Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 24 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
Tinysignature
Aramis · 20 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
Winstrike Team
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 15 games
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 10 games
Lion
yamich · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 207 bans
Puck
373 picks · 977 bans
Mars
362 picks · 598 bans
Grimstroke
341 picks · 359 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 178 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
277 picks · 188 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 612 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:43
ViKin.gg 71%Winstrike Team 29%
The model gave 71% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 1:20:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautShad
Linare1bl
Templar AssassinBOOM
Dark Seerchshrct
TidehunterKheZu
Slarkdyrachyo
ClockwerkAramis
Winter WyvernPanto
SnapfireSeleri
Nyx Assassinyamich
Game 2prediction correct43:33
ViKin.gg 73%Winstrike Team 27%
The model gave 73% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 52:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorKheZu
Batriderre1bl
MarsBOOM
Ursadyrachyo
Faceless VoidShad
Enigmachshrct
MiranaAramis
Clockwerkyamich
SnapfireSeleri
OraclePanto
Game 3prediction missed17:30
ViKin.gg 69%Winstrike Team 31%
The model gave 69% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingShad
Templar Assassinre1bl
LinaBOOM
Bristlebackdyrachyo
Death ProphetKheZu
Enigmayamich
SnapfireSeleri
Timbersawchshrct
TidehunterAramis
ClockwerkPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 82%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3