Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionVAVillain Arcwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CICyberDragon Infinityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Villain Arc
No games played over 6 months.
CyberDragon Infinity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
785 picks · 534 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 402 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
427 picks · 684 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 296 bans
Death Prophet
391 picks · 758 bans
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 814 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Villain Arc
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Villain Arc
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:27
Villain Arc 52%CyberDragon Infinity 48%
The model gave 52% on Villain Arc — the game was taken by Villain Arc in 27:14.
Game 2prediction correct16:44
Villain Arc 52%CyberDragon Infinity 48%
The model gave 52% on Villain Arc — the game was taken by Villain Arc in 32:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillain Arc · 52%
Series resultVillain Arc 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2